masterchef australia who will win

We Crunched The Numbers & Here’s Who Deserves To Win ‘MasterChef’

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We have reached the pointy end of this year’s season of MasterChef, and all that’s left to be decided is who will walk away as the winner.

It’s truly anyone’s game. Every cook left in the competition is amazing in their own way and they all have very different strengths. But which contestant has actually done the best so far? As a massive nerd at heart, I like to deal with concrete data, so I decided to make a system where I went over past challenges to see which contestants cooked the dishes that were most awarded by the judges.

These are the rules: contestants who were named among the top dishes each week get one point, while immunity winners get two points.

FYI: I haven’t taken into account group or pair wins because they don’t show off individual skill. Also to make it fair, I did not include dishes named in the top during elimination challenges, as this would (in most cases) be rewarding contestants who cooked badly in the first place and were sent to elimination from failing their relays or group challenges. Instead, the points counted came solely from mystery boxes and immunity challenges.

If final scores for contestants are the same, I’ve ordered according to which chef more recently excelled in the competition — therefore showing improvement in their skills. OK, let’s get stuck into my findings!

Here are where the final MasterChef contestants rank based on their wins so far:

#9. Tessa

Tessa has zero points. She has never been in the top for a mystery box or immunity challenge, and therefore has never won immunity. This surprised me because I can recall heaps of standout dishes that Tessa created throughout her time in the MasterChef kitchen. Sadly, her chances of walking away the winner are about as likely as Andy describing a dish as anything other than “banging!”

#8. Brendan

Sorry, Brendan stans, I was as disappointed to discover this as you are. Unfortunately, while Brendan had successful dishes and was fairly consistent throughout MasterChef, he mostly excelled in elimination challenges. Brendan didn’t land in the top spot for any of the immunity cookoffs at the beginning of the competition but managed to be named in the top four for the mystery boxes inspired by family photos (although failed to secure immunity). Signs aren’t looking good.

#7. Reece

masterchef australia who win

At least Brendan is in good company. Reece has a slight edge over Brendan for scoring one of the top dishes three times. While he has improved in recent weeks, it might not be enough for Reece to claim the grand prize. But his and Brendan’s friendship is still priceless.

#6. Khanh

Both Reece and Khanh have the same amount of wins, but neither have gone on to actually win immunity. They are extremely even and I struggled to pick who should rank higher. Ultimately, I’ve placed Khanh higher as in the last two weeks of the competition, he has repetitively placed in the top. Khanh finally has some momentum so who knows, he could surprise us all as a dark horse and snatch the crown.

#5. Laura

While Laura was absolutely killing it in the first few weeks of MasterChef, she then plateaued in recent challenges. She hasn’t served up bad dishes, but there also hasn’t been anything spectacular. Laura has never won immunity, and while she has placed in the top dishes four times, most of her best dishes were between episode one and episode 13. It looks like the pasta queen is quickly running out of steam.

#4. Emelia

While Emelia is somehow the bookies consistent favourite to win, the numbers don’t add up. Emelia has placed in the top three times and won immunity once in an impressive 75-step dessert challenge. Most of her successes came at the start of the series, but she also has a tendency to thrive in pressure tests so I wouldn’t count her out just yet.

#3. Reynold

The next two contestants have the exact same score, so the only way to rank them is based on whether their game has improved or worsened. Unfortunately for Reynold, while he has placed in the top four times, this was mostly in the first half and midway through his game majorly stagnated.

Although his immunity win in the fairytale challenge solidified him as a threat, Reynold’s cooking is often inconsistent. We all know that Reynold can deliver a spectacular dessert, so it all depends on what’s on the menu for the finale — if he gets that far.

#2. Callum

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Callum tops Reynold because he’s the only contestant to win two immunity challenges, which is super impressive. One of these challenges was a hectic, three-round mini-finale, so we know he can perform under pressure. Callum’s only negative is that he underperformed and played it too safe in the middle of the competition. But he has a massive chance of winning All-Stars (again!), with proven results of consistently getting better week after week.

#1. Poh

In Poh, we trust. She may have started out fairly shaky (chaotic Poh took hold!), but has absolutely come into her own as the competition has heated up. For the past five weeks, Poh’s dishes have landed in the top spot, making her by far the most consistent cook left in the competition and the biggest threat. She also won immunity as chosen by the MasterChef queen herself, Katy Perry.

If Poh keeps up this momentum, she has every chance of winning. Let us pray that she can channel that chaotic energy into something spectacular!


This article originally included an error. We forgot Tessa. We are very sorry, Tessa. It sucks to say this but Tessa is barely featured in any episodes, and has never been picked to battle for immunity. #JusticeForTessa